Mid-Term Elections: Mind the Gap

by Bryan Joiner

There are some pretty optimistic polls out there right now for Democrats indicating that they might win the Senate, and that winning the House is a mere formality. Electoral-vote.com is predicting at least a split 50-50 Senate split and a whopping 239-196 House majority for the Democrats, while the New York Times isn't so bold, hedging many of the Senate races and giving the "toss-up" designation to many of the House races (their numbers still suggest a Democratic victory).

All of this sounds promising for the left, but the GOP talking heads insist that there's a hidden GOP vote.

By my guess it’s worth two to three percentage points that's going to come out today, with the combined extra turnout and voter irregularities. That's what took down John Kerry in 2004 in Ohio, and that's why an overwhelming Democratic victory is unlikely.

The closest Senate races are in Montana, Missouri, Maryland and Virginia, which are statistical dead heats. (Forget New Jersey, Menendez is going to win.) An extra turnout of one or two percent for either side could easily swing the elections. That extra oomph force a split, with Republicans George Allen taking Virginia and Jim Talent winning Missouri; Dems Jon Tester and Ben Cardin would still win Montana and Maryland.

Montana has the most interesting race. Tester has been ahead virtually the entire campaign in a blood-red state. Will potential voters wake up today and realize that, unless they vote Republican, they're going to be buddying up with Kerry and Barack Obama? If they do, Democrats have virtually no chance of winning the Senate.

The House is clearer—it's going to go Democratic. If it doesn't, the GOP can expect to hear from Democratic lawyers at daybreak Wednesday. The only question is by how much, and I'm far from being a position to call it.

Lastly, I may be out of the loop on most governors' races, but I want to give a shout-out to Deval Patrick in my home state of Massachusetts, who will become the first Democratic governor there since I was in seventh grade.